bank stress test report released what POOP !
Posted: Fri Apr 24, 2009 3:46 pm
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevent ... 0424a1.pdf
Initial thoughts as I read it: the bureaucrats asked the same groups of idiots who didn't see the current set of problems coming for their modeled projections and thoughts about the future. There's little to no 'stress' here.
If they had wanted to really conduct a stress test, they would have set up a bit of modeling and statistical software and start simulating banking losses at every 0.1% increase in the BLS U-3 unemployment rate from here to, say, 12%."
Never mind trying to predict the future - just ask "what happens at these levels of stress?" Because economists are almost always wrong. Their models don't predict jack. That's why there's three releases of GDP data - the preliminary, the revised and then the final release - which can happen upwards of 9 to 10 months after the quarter being reported - because they can't get the predictions correct.
Initial thoughts as I read it: the bureaucrats asked the same groups of idiots who didn't see the current set of problems coming for their modeled projections and thoughts about the future. There's little to no 'stress' here.
If they had wanted to really conduct a stress test, they would have set up a bit of modeling and statistical software and start simulating banking losses at every 0.1% increase in the BLS U-3 unemployment rate from here to, say, 12%."
Never mind trying to predict the future - just ask "what happens at these levels of stress?" Because economists are almost always wrong. Their models don't predict jack. That's why there's three releases of GDP data - the preliminary, the revised and then the final release - which can happen upwards of 9 to 10 months after the quarter being reported - because they can't get the predictions correct.
